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Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

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https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2017-55
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
06 Oct 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (NPG).
Nonlinear analysis of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea
Berenice Rojo-Garibaldi1, David Alberto Salas-de-León2, María Adela Monreal-Gómez2, Norma Leticia Sánchez-Santillán3, and David Salas-Monreal4 1Posgrado en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Av. Universidad 3000, Col. Copilco, Del. Coyoacán, Cd.Mx. 04510, México
2Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Av. Universidad 3000, Col. Copilco, Del. Coyoacán, Cd.Mx. 04510, México
3Dep. El Hombre y su Ambiente, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Calz. del Hueso 1100, Del. Coyoacán, Villa Quietud, Cd.Mx. 04960, México
4Instituto de Ciencias Marinas y Pesquerías, Universidad Veracruzana, Hidalgo No. 617 Col. Río Jamapa, C.P. 94290 Boca del Río, Veracruz, México
Abstract. Hurricanes are complex systems that carry large amounts of energy. Their impact produces, the majority of the time, natural disasters involving the loss of human lives and of materials and infrastructure in billions of US dollars. However, not everything is negative, as hurricanes are the main source of rainwater for the regions where they develop. In this study, we perform a nonlinear analysis of the time series obtained from 1749 to 2012 of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. The construction of the hurricane time series was carried out based on the hurricane database of The North Atlantic-basin Hurricane Database (HURDAT), and the published historical information. The Lyapunov exponent indicated that the system presented chaotic dynamics, and the time-series’ spectral analysis along with the nonlinear analysis of the hurricanes time series showed chaotic edge behavior. One possible explanation for this edge is the individual chaotic behavior of hurricanes, either by category or individually, regardless of their category, and their behavior on a regular basis.

Citation: Rojo-Garibaldi, B., Salas-de-León, D. A., Monreal-Gómez, M. A., Sánchez-Santillán, N. L., and Salas-Monreal, D.: Nonlinear analysis of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2017-55, in review, 2017.
Berenice Rojo-Garibaldi et al.
Berenice Rojo-Garibaldi et al.
Berenice Rojo-Garibaldi et al.

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Short summary
Hurricanes are complex systems that carry large amounts of energy. Its impact produces, most of the time, natural disasters involving the loss of human lives and of materials and infrastructure that is accounted for in billions of US dollars. Not everything is negative as hurricanes are the main source of rain water for the regions where they develop. In this study we make a nonlinear analysis of the time series obtained from 1749 to 2012 of the hurricanes occurrence in the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricanes are complex systems that carry large amounts of energy. Its impact produces, most of...
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