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Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 17 May 2019

Research article | 17 May 2019

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (NPG).

Unraveling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via nonlinear multi-scale approach

Jürgen Kurths1,2,3, Ankit Agarwal1,2,4, Norbert Marwan1, Maheswaran Rathinasamy1, Levke Caesar1,5, Raghvan Krishnan6, and Bruno Merz2,4 Jürgen Kurths et al.
  • 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, Germany
  • 2Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
  • 3Institute of Physics, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Germany
  • 4GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 5.4: Hydrology, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, Germany
  • 5Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
  • 6Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

Abstract. A better understanding of precipitation dynamics in the Indian subcontinent is required since India’s society depends heavily on reliable monsoon forecasts. We introduce a nonlinear, multiscale approach, based on wavelets and event synchronization, for unraveling teleconnection influences on precipitation. We consider those climate patterns with highest relevance for Indian precipitation. Our results suggest significant influences which are not well captured by only the wavelet coherence analysis, the state-of-the-art method in understanding linkages at multiple time scales. We find substantial variation across India and across time scales. In particular, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mainly influence precipitation in the southeast at interannual and decadal scales, respectively, whereas the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a strong connection to precipitation particularly in the northern regions. The effect of PDO stretches across the whole country, whereas AMO influences precipitation particularly in the central arid and semi-arid regions. The proposed method provides a powerful approach for capturing the dynamics of precipitation and, hence, helps improving precipitation forecasting.

Jürgen Kurths et al.
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Jürgen Kurths et al.
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Publications Copernicus
Short summary
We examined the spatial diversity of Indian rainfall teleconnection at different time scales, first by identifying homogenous communities and later by computing nonlinear linkages between the identified communities (spatial regions) and dominant climatic patterns, represented by climatic indices such as El-Nino Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic multi-decadal Oscillation.
We examined the spatial diversity of Indian rainfall teleconnection at different time scales,...